Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said India is likely continue to face challenges in raising longer-term growth potential and creating enough jobs for its young population in the absence of higher trade openness. In its report on South Asia sovereigns, Moody's said compared with other South Asian economies, India appears to be in a better position to deepen its integration in global value chains, attract FDI and increase exports. The country has better macroeconomic fundamentals, more stable politics and a more developed export sector.
India's GDP may turn positive at 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2020-21, having witnessed contraction in the previous two quarters due to the coronavirus pandemic, as the number of cases is falling and public spending has started rising, according to a report. The government will release the GDP numbers for the October-December quarter of the current fiscal on Friday. Projecting that the gross domestic product (GDP) may have returned to the black in the last quarter of the calendar year 2020, DBS Bank in the report said the full-year growth in real terms may be at a negative 6.8 per cent.
Brokerage firm Ambit Capital has cut FY17 growth estimate to 3.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent and saaid there was even a possibility of growth contracting during the December quarter
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
The chambers said that the situation calls for urgent policy measures both by RBI and the government to salvage industry from further decline in industrial output.
The EIU said in a report on Wednesday forecast that the real GDP grew by 1.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in India, but noted that this uptick was largely owing to base effect.
While the ratio determines the extent to which the government is able to finance its expenditure, it is also an indicator of tax compliance. Developed countries have a higher contribution of tax to their GDP.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
'The prime minister's comment on 'revdi culture' was welcome. But I am disappointed he did not follow up on that.' 'All political parties, including the BJP, have been guilty of this.' 'Now, Modi's guarantees, the Congress's 'nyay' path and both ruling and Opposition parties are vying with each other for freebies in my home state Andhra Pradesh.'
Asked when the economy will revive, Das said it is difficult to make an estimate as there are many things which are still playing out.
There is a vocal constituency of educated, well-to-do, articulate Indian elites who would rather go with the idea that too much democracy is a liability. That India needs a spell of benevolent dictatorship. Of course, they have never lived under one, points out Shekhar Gupta.
'What happens in the real estate market is that once the prices go up it goes on to stay at that level.' 'It might not increase and at the same time the prices will not come down too.'
'What happened to Andhra Pradesh? It is the perfect example of the transientness of Federal Units.' 'Federalism is a transient thing in this country.'
The FM said an announcement with regard to the additional steps will be made after consulting Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The BSE mid-cap and small-cap stocks have outperformed the benchmark Sensex in 2023-24 with about 62 per cent returns, reflecting buoyant investors' sentiment amid robust macroeconomic conditions in the country and impressive quarterly earnings reported by various firms. As per an analysis, the BSE mid-cap gauge jumped 15,013.95 points or 62.38 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal, while the small-cap index climbed 16,068.99 points or 59.60 per cent. In comparison, the 30-share BSE Sensex raked in a gain of 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent during the fiscal under review.
But Indians work less than smaller countries with small populations like Bhutan, the Congo, Lesotho and Gambia.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
For 2020 calendar year, it reduced the estimate by a similar measure to 6.7 per cent.
The real requirement for the finance minister's explanatory speech is to explain the measures taken in the Budget to influence inflation and growth not just through the announcement of a deficit goal, but more broadly through the impact on money supply, consumer demand, foreign trade and investment, explains Nitin Desai.
Hospitality and travel sector players on Tuesday demanded infrastructure status for the hotel industry besides measures such as tax exemption on LTA annually to boost domestic tourism ahead of the Union Budget. They also recommended removal of the current TDS levied on automated bookings for internal or closed user groups such as business travel platforms and reducing the total number of licenses required to establish a hotel. "A full-blown infrastructure status for the hotel sector and further rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a Central single window clearance for hotel projects are some of the major expectations from the Budget 2024," Roseate Hotels & Resorts CEO Kush Kapoor said in a statement.
It is a classic case of extremes: The worst contraction in GDP along with the highest-ever levels of cash in the economy; and a severe dent in consumption together with strong growth in bank deposits and digital payments.
For the current fiscal which ends on March 31, it put the real GDP estimate at 5 per cent. It estimated a 7 per cent growth in 2022-23 and 2023-24 fiscal years. The inflation rate was seen moderating to 4.4 per cent in the next fiscal from 4.7 per cent in the current.
The slowdown is especially pronounced in rural areas, which have suffered two consecutive dry years.
The International Monetary Fund has reduced India's contribution to world gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms to 4.6 per cent in 2007 from the earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent.
Get more people working, get more people working in modern manufacturing and services in our cities, and get people working better and longer, suggests Naushad Forbes, past president, CII.
While most economies contracted in the second quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by 3.2 per cent.
Of the seven surveys presented under Modi govt, predictions of three were quite close to the actual GDP growth rate, one saw the base year change in between, but the last three were way off the mark.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces heat of the second Covid wave.
The banking regulator was uncomfortable with the runaway pace at which consumer credit was growing.
Moody's on Thursday raised India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2020 upwards to -8.9 per cent contraction from -9.6 per cent contraction forecast earlier. Similarly, India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2021 has been revised upwards to 8.6 per cent from 8.1 per cent projected earlier. The report released by Moody's Investors Service attributed the reason behind better growth to the falling of coronavirus cases in the country.
Delivering a public speech hours after the RBI launched a rescue act for Yes Bank on March 6, Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated the RBI's affirmation to do whatever was needed to combat the coronavirus impact. On that day, India had only one confirmed COVID-19 infection, the World Health Organisation was five days off from declaring it as a pandemic and the financially debilitating lockdowns were not even on the horizon. Das' promise on efforts to mitigate COVID-19 impact appeared as a footnote in news reports from the event.
'This might prove to be a temporary gain for the BJP, but at a huge cost to the people of Gujarat and democracy in India.'
India grew at 7.6% in 2015-16 and at 7.2% in 2014-15.
'I expect fourth quarter GDP growth to be sharply down.' 'I would imagine it would shave off at least one percentage point, if not more, as compared to the third quarter.'
Rajan had said that there was lack of clarity about the new method.
India's bank credit remains resilient and is showing no signs of systematic risk, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Michael Patra said on Monday. A copy of the speech was uploaded on the RBI website on Thursday. "Bank credit is monitored as a lead indicator of overheating. Our assessment, based on a menu of approaches, indicates that current rates of credit expansion are not pointing to systemic stress building up. Illustratively, the credit gap - the difference between the credit to GDP ratio and its trend - is currently negative," said Patra, while delivering a speech in Cambodia.
Rating firm Crisil revised downwards its GDP growth forecast to 5.5 per cent this fiscal from its earlier estimate of 6 per cent, citing reduced likelihood of monetary easing going forward due to falling rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid the gradual lifting of coronavirus related countrywide lockdown.
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